I don’t think Republicans will waltz to victory in 2028.
I don’t think Democrats will waltz to victory in 2028.
It’s going to be a dogfight.
And problems exist inside both parties.
The Republican Party is divided on some major issues, ranging from the involvement of the state and economics to foreign policy. The record of whoever is the Republican nominee will also come up for scrutiny.
I’ve discussed the problems facing the Democratic Party before, which are pretty obvious: There’s a big divide between the radical base and the moderation they’re going to need to win.
Gavin Newsom may well be their presidential candidate. He wants to campaign as the guy who cooperates with ICE, as the guy who wants to be at least moderate during the transition. Newsom also wants to be fairly moderate on foreign policy, and doesn’t want to engage in a lot of the same sort of rhetorical radicalism of his own party.
Will the base allow him to do that? I don’t think so. He’s been able to hide it so far by attacking Trump. I’m not sure how long that will last. So that’s one problem for him. And of course, the other problem is his record in California. There will be a lot of Willie Horton-type ads that come out against Newsom as he runs for the presidency.
The problem for the Republicans is that Gavin Newsom is a very talented guy. I don’t think there’s any doubt when you watch my interview with him. He is good on his feet, and slippery when he needs to be. He also does a convincing imitation of a pro-capitalist moderate. If you think that’s an imitation, maybe that’s the real Gavin Newsom, and he has had to slather it over with radicalism to get where he wants to go.
Here’s what I would urge for both parties: Perhaps you ought to take a look at what the American people want. Look at the closeness of every American election for the last 12 years and think to yourself: “Maybe if I tacked toward the middle, maybe what Americans really want is normalcy.”
It’s possible the primary structure prevents normalcy from taking the floor. But as we’re seeing from the polling data, more and more Americans are identifying as independent. And the reason for this is because all they want is a return to normalcy.
I think the reason President Trump won in 2024 is that he was by far the most normie candidate – by far.
Joe Biden was not a normie candidate. He was dead on his feet and a radical. Kamala Harris was not a normie candidate. She was an empty suit and a radical.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump took the middle position on nearly every issue. Will Republicans do the same, or will they be so high on their own supply that they go rhetorically radical over and over and over for no apparent reason?
Pursuing mainstream policy is going to be the big battle of 2028.