Vice President Kamala Harris is not keeping up with the polling numbers of the previous two Democratic presidential nominees at this point in the race as she remains in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald Trump.
In top battleground states, Trump is performing more than 3 points better against Harris than he was against President Joe Biden in 2020 at this point in the campaign, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Polling for Trump is nearly 2 points better for him against Harris than it was for him against Hillary Clinton at this point in 2016.
The top pollster for Cygnal — one of the most accurate GOP polling firms in the country — said the historical polling data is bad news for Harris.
“When you look at where Biden was against Trump at this point, Harris is doing much worse in comparison,” Cygnal’s Brett Buchanan said. “In Arizona, she’s trailing Biden’s margin among younger voters by 3x (+11 v +31). Trump holds trust on the two key issues – inflation and immigration. This race is still Trump’s.”
Cygnal’s latest national poll shows Harris leading Trump by just 2 points — close to the RCP national average, which has Harris up by 1.5 points. At this point in 2020, Biden was leading Trump by more than 7 points nationally, per RCP.
FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls gives Harris a slightly bigger lead than RCP, showing her at 48.1% to Trump’s 45.5% as of Friday morning. In the major swing states, Trump barely leads in Georgia and Arizona, while Harris has a slight edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight. In Nevada and North Carolina, the two candidates are within 0.3 points of each other.
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Cygnal also released a poll of Michigan, a vital battleground state, on Thursday, showing Harris with a slight advantage at 47% to Trump’s 46%. Both of Cygnals latest polls were conducted before the debate between Harris and Trump, but Buchanan said that he doesn’t think the debate will have much of an effect on the election.
“Mostly partisans watched the debate. Each candidate gave their base what they wanted. Undecided voters just see clips later,” he added. “Trump gave more and better sound bites, even if there are viral ones the Dems intend to hurt him. Harris left few to no sound bites and certainly did NOT deliver on economic policy specifics that matter to undecided voters.”
Trump said on Thursday that he would not debate Harris. The debate’s moderators, ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis, were slammed by the former president and many conservatives for their apparent bias. Trump was fact-checked numerous times by Muir and Davis, but Harris was never fact-checked despite making multiple false statements.
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