The Canadian Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, won the Canadian election on Tuesday, after the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had held a 25-point lead among decided voters in December.
As of Tuesday morning, the Liberal party won 154 seats with 43.5% of the vote. Despite not winning the election, Poilievre’s Conservatives achieved their best result in years, garnering 41.4% of the vote and adding 20 seats. However, Poilievre lost his seat in Parliament, which could jeopardize his role as leader of the Conservative Party.
An Ipsos poll conducted last December found that the Conservative Party garnered 20% of the vote, while the Liberals, led by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, tied with the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 20%. At the time, the Liberals had the lowest share of the popular vote since 2011. But by mid-April, a Nanos poll showed the Liberals leading by six percentage points.
Poilievre’s lead in the polls shrank as President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and made sarcastic remarks calling Canada the “51st state.” Trump referred to Canada as the “51st state” at a dinner with Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago last December after the Canadian prime minister stated his concern about Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canada.
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc commented, “The president was telling jokes. The president was teasing us. It was, of course, on that issue, in no way a serious comment.”
In late December, Poilievre, seeing Canadians react defensively to Trump’s comments, responded, “I have the strength and the smarts to stand up for this country and my message to incoming President Trump is that first and foremost, Canada will never be the 51st state of the U.S.”
In early January, Trudeau resigned, saying he would stay on until a new leader of his party was chosen. After Carney was selected to replace Trudeau in mid-March, he consistently said that Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.”
After he was sworn in, Trump announced he would implement an additional 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports; on February 1, he announced 25 percent tariffs on virtually all imports from Canada. On February 3, he announced a 30-day pause on those tariffs. On February 27, he said the tariffs against Canada would go into effect on March 4 “as scheduled.” On March 5, he said he would pause tariffs on cars coming into the U.S. for one month. On April 9, he said he would pause all reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and make them 10% across the board.
In mid-March, Trump told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham. “I’d rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative. The Conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don’t know him but he’s said negative things. When he’s said negative things I couldn’t care less. I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a Liberal.”
Poilievre responded, “Last night, President Donald Trump endorsed Mark Carney. Why? Because, as Trump said, he’s ‘easier’ to deal with, and knows that I will be a tough negotiator and always put Canada First. Carney is weak and would cave to Trump’s demands, just like he did when he moved his company headquarters from Canada to New York City. Canadians don’t want a weak and conflicted leader. They want a strong Prime Minister who will put Canada First.”
Last night, President Donald Trump endorsed Mark Carney.
Why? Because, as Trump said, he’s “easier” to deal with, and knows that I will be a tough negotiator and always put Canada First. Carney is weak and would cave to Trump’s demands, just like he did when he moved his company… pic.twitter.com/Dv6FgyyLYg
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) March 19, 2025
On Monday, the day of the election, Trump again wrote on Truth Social about Canada becoming a state:
Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with NO BORDER. ALL POSITIVES WITH NO NEGATIVES. IT WAS MEANT TO BE! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!
As Canadian voters went to the polls on Monday, Poilievre, a hard-line conservative, wrote on X, “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state. Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.”
President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.
Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state.
Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen…
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) April 28, 2025
To form a majority in the Parliament of Canada, a party must gather 172 seats. According to CTV News and the CBC, the Liberal Party won enough seats to form a minority government. They will have to unite with the Leftist NDP and the Green Party to form a majority government. As of Tuesday morning, with almost all of the votes recorded, the Liberals were projected to win 168 seats compared to the Conservatives 144, the Quebecois Party 23, the NDP seven seats and the Green party one. The Liberals only need four more seats, while the NDP would have the four to give them.
