Democrat Jay Jones’ texting scandal is threatening to sink Democrats’ chances in the gubernatorial race for the commonwealth of Virginia, according to pollster Brent Buchanan.

Buchanan, founder and president of the polling firm Cygnal, said Jones’ August 2022 texts, which wished harm against a state GOP lawmaker, have flipped typical election dynamics to drag down other Democrats on the ballot. The scandal, as well as Democrats’ failure to condemn transgender ideology, has given Republicans an edge in a couple of campaign fundamentals.

“There are some key fundamentals to any political campaign, and that is money, message, and messenger. The message and messenger is on the Republican side, but the money’s on the Democratic side right now,” Buchanan said in an interview with Morning Wire that aired on Monday.

Jones is running to be the state’s next attorney general, and since his texts were made public earlier this month, he has fallen behind Republican incumbent Jason Miyares. But over the same timeframe, the fallout has appeared to spread to other races as well, as former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race has shrunk.

“Normally, governor’s races drive down-ballot races, and because of the scandal with Democrat Jay Jones and his text messages and the fact that no Democrats are coming out and saying that he should resign, drop out of the race, it’s really flipped the race on its head,” the pollster said.

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“The proof that it’s affecting the governor’s race is that, in September, we had Winsome Earle-Sears down by seven, and now have her only down by four-and-a-half,” said Buchanan. “I know that doesn’t sound huge, but when you consider how much money has been spent by the Democrats, and little in comparison by Sears, it’s essentially proof that the [attorney general] race is driving the governor’s race now.”

Spanberger may have much more to lose before the election, scheduled to take place on November 4.

“What’s fascinating is, we polled right after Labor Day,” Buchanan said, “one of the things we found in the survey is that there’s a huge swath of voters in Virginia who still have not heard about these text messages.”

In addition to the text messages, Spanberger may also suffer from her messaging around transgenderism. In a Virginia governor’s race debate last week, Spanberger evaded weighing in on debates over school bathroom and locker room policies regarding students who identify as transgender. Spanberger repeatedly said it was an issue to be taken up locally.

“The transgender issue is popping its head back up,” said Buchanan. “The culture wars are what won Donald Trump the 2024 election, and I think we’re seeing that play itself out again in 2025 as if Democrats just can’t learn the lesson.”

“Republicans are firing on all cylinders right now, making sure that this is the one issue being spoken about in paid advertising. The challenge is that Democrats still have a very large spending advantage,” he added.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed several media outlets on Monday after they refused to sign off on the Pentagon’s new press policy — which they say violates the First Amendment and Hegseth says will put the Pentagon in line with the policy governing press on every other U.S. military installation.

The new policy was detailed in a memo in late May, and said in part, “All members of the press issued a Pentagon Facility Alternate Credential (PFAC), will be required to read and sign a new in–brief form outlining information security requirements, the new physical control measures, and Department of War expectations of their compliance with safety and security requirements.”

But several outlets have taken issue with the policy, and several have made it clear that their journalists will not sign the requisite forms.

Washington Post Executive Editor Matt Murray issued a statement on Monday saying, “Journalists from The Washington Post will not be signing the Pentagon’s new press access policy. The proposed restrictions undercut First Amendment protections by placing unnecessary constraints on gathering and publishing information. We will continue to vigorously and fairly report on the policies and positions of the Pentagon and officials across the government.”

Hegseth responded with a waving hand emoji.

👋 https://t.co/JhA7EutLqL

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) October 13, 2025

Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor in Chief of The Atlantic, offered a similar statement: “The Atlantic’s journalists will not sign the Pentagon’s press policy. We fundamentally oppose the restrictions that the Trump administration is imposing on journalists who are reporting on matters of defense and national security. The requirements violate our First Amendment rights, and the rights of Americans who seek to know how taxpayer-funded military resources and personnel are being deployed. We will [continue] to cover matters of defense, war, and national security independently and fairly.”

Again, Hegseth responded with a waving hand.

👋 https://t.co/kBdhMyxrnB

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) October 13, 2025

The New York Times also issued a statement through Washington Bureau Chief Richard Stevenson: “Journalists from The New York Times will not sign the Pentagon’s revised press pass policy, which threatens to punish them for ordinary news gathering protected by the First Amendment. Since the policy was first announced, we have expressed concerns that it constrains how journalists can report on the U.S. military, which is funded by nearly $1 trillion in taxpayer dollars annually. The public has a right to know how the government and the military are operating. The Times is dedicated to pursuing the public interest through deep, fair reporting and an unwavering pursuit of the facts.”

👋 https://t.co/wnTQiHJZyC

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) October 13, 2025

Hegseth followed those posts with a brief explanation, saying, “Pentagon access is a privilege, not a right. So, here is @DeptofWar press credentialing FOR DUMMIES: Press no longer roams free; Press must wear visible badge; Credentialed press no longer permitted to solicit criminal acts. DONE. Pentagon now has same rules as every U.S military installation.”

Pentagon access is a privilege, not a right. So, here is @DeptofWar press credentialing FOR DUMMIES:

✅ Press no longer roams free

✅ Press must wear visible badge

✅ Credentialed press no longer permitted to solicit criminal acts

DONE. Pentagon now has same rules as every…

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) October 13, 2025

A number of other outlets — including a few that skew to the political Right — have made it clear that they are not on board with the policy either, citing some of the same concerns.

Newsmax issued a statement that read, “Newsmax has no plans to sign the letter. We are working in conjunction with other media outlets to resolve the situation. We believe the requirements are unnecessary and onerous and hope that the Pentagon will review the matter further.”

The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Examiner, CNN, The Associated Press, and The Guardian all followed suit.