In a historic turn of events, Iran agreed to a ceasefire Monday following a limited strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar. 

The agreement, brokered by President Donald Trump, marks a dramatic de-escalation after 12 days of war.

Even as the ceasefire deal seems to be teetering, experts say Iran’s decision to step back reflects the heavy toll its military infrastructure has taken in the wake of coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, missile stockpiles and key production facilities.

"Iran cannot win this war," said Danny Orbach, a military historian at Hebrew University. "They’ve lost roughly 60% of their launchers. Even if they still have around 1,000 long-range missiles, without enough functioning launchers, they can’t deploy them effectively."

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According to U.S. and Israeli officials, the attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the largest U.S. base in the Middle East — caused no casualties and only minor damage. The strike appears to have been carefully calibrated.

"The strike in Qatar was coordinated with the Americans and was not intended to impress or cause real harm," claimed Sima Shine, a former Mossad official and senior Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. "Iran still has weapons, but it doesn’t want to draw the U.S. into an all-out war. And they know closing the Strait of Hormuz will end badly for them."

"What has largely remained intact is Iran’s short-range capability," said Blaise Misztal, vice president of policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). "These are thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones that can’t reach Israel, but can absolutely hit U.S. bases in Qatar, Iraq, Bahrain, and the UAE. That’s what we saw in the strike on Al Udeid."

Misztal added that Iran’s remaining arsenal is "well-developed and available in far greater quantities" than its long-range weapons. "The danger isn’t just to U.S. forces. Iran can still target energy infrastructure, major cities, and commercial shipping across the Gulf."

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In a 2024 report for JINSA, retired General Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command, warned that American bases in the Gulf are critically vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone saturation attacks. He noted that installations like Al Udeid are just minutes from Iranian launch sites, leaving little time to react — and called for a strategic shift westward and stronger missile defense integration with regional allies to overcome the "tyranny of geography."

As the U.S. repositioned some aircraft and ships ahead of the expected Iranian retaliation, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine confirmed that defense measures had been bolstered across Iraq and Syria.

Analysts say the real reason for Iran’s climbdown is the sheer scale of its losses. 

Orbach explained that Iran is now facing what military theorist William Tecumseh Sherman once described as "a range of bad choices." "They don’t have the money to rebuild everything," he said. "They’ll have to choose between restoring their missile program, supporting proxies, or reviving their nuclear infrastructure. They can’t do it all."

"Iran remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terror," Misztal added, "They’ve plotted assassinations on U.S. soil before. They’ve carried out attacks globally," Misztal said. "And they’ve invested heavily in cyber since the Stuxnet attack in 2010. Energy infrastructure, regional systems, even U.S. targets — they’re all vulnerable."

"Will Iran learn enough of a lesson from these attacks to moderate its behavior? It seems unlikely," Misztal added, "I think their hope is that, regardless of how this ends or what happens to their nuclear program, they can return to their usual pattern of aggression — using proxies and indirect attacks throughout the region and beyond. This regime is built on ‘Death to America, Death to Israel.’ That hostility is central to its identity, and it can’t abandon it without losing legitimacy."

For some royal experts, the silence of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle is deafening.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex haven’t given a public statement after Derek Dixon sued Tyler Perry for $260 million for alleged sexual harassment, assault and retaliation. The complaint, which was filed on June 13, showed the actor accusing the filmmaker of creating "a coercive, sexually exploitative dynamic" environment while filming "The Oval" and "Ruthless."

Fox News Digital reached out to Archewell, which handles the offices of the duke and duchess, for comment. Perry, 55, is godfather to the couple’s daughter, Princess Lilibet, 4.

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"Instead of offering their stalwart support as good friends would who even lived in his home, this silence is a clear demonstration of… a total lack of moral courage," British royals expert Hilary Fordwich claimed to Fox News Digital.

"Their silence to avoid entanglement in a scandal, especially given their precarious standing in both Hollywood and royal circles, won’t look good in the long run," Fordwich warned.

"Harry and Meghan are in a lose-lose situation. Keeping their distance has backfired either way. If Tyler Perry is exonerated, their lack of support will be seen as a betrayal, further damaging their credibility among friends and potential allies alike. If allegations against Tyler Perry are proven, distancing themselves to protect their brand will still appear opportunistic and ungrateful."

Matthew Boyd, an attorney for Tyler Perry and TPS Production Services, LLC, previously shared a statement with Fox News Digital.

"This is an individual who got close to Tyler Perry for what now appears to be nothing more than setting up a scam. But Tyler will not be shaken down and we are confident these fabricated claims of harassment will fail," the statement read.

Dixon claimed he was sexually assaulted by Perry in January 2020, months before the Duke and Duchess of Sussex stepped back as senior royals and moved to California.

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In the 2022 Netflix docuseries, "Harry & Meghan," Perry spoke out about his close friendship with the couple and how he offered them refuge at his Los Angeles home where the family could feel safe with their then-1-year-old son Prince Archie after their royal exit.

"You said, ‘Stay as long as you need to.’ We said, ‘Maybe we just stay forever,’" Harry, 40, told Perry, as quoted by People magazine.

"Tyler Perry put himself out there and was one of the few A-listers who fiercely defended the Sussexes," Kinsey Schofield, host of the "To Di For Daily" podcast, told Fox News Digital. "To quote Prince Harry from his January 2023 interview with Anderson Cooper on ‘60 Minutes,’ ‘Silence is betrayal.' I imagine Tyler Perry would appreciate any backup at this point."

"Harry and Meghan’s silence looks completely self-serving," Schofield claimed.

"In the court of public opinion, agents and publicists often rally influential celebrities to throw their support behind the accused in order to sway both media narratives and public sentiment. It doesn’t matter whether you’re guilty or not. With the right spin, you can continue to work after the fallout… If Harry and Meghan chose to get involved and support Tyler, it could encourage other public figures to follow suit. I’m not saying it’s right, but it’s how the system works."

"I’ve worked with Tyler Perry," Schofield shared. "He struck me as kind. I hope these accusations aren’t true — not just for the sake of my own memories of Tyler, but for Harry and Meghan’s daughter, Lili, his goddaughter."

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According to "Harry & Meghan," Perry said he first got acquainted with Meghan, 43, after he sent her a letter ahead of her 2018 royal wedding. People magazine reported that Perry told the former American actress he was praying for her amid the "hurtful" controversy surrounding her strained relationship with her father, former Hollywood lighting director Thomas Markle.

"I couldn't even imagine this woman finding the man that she loved, the man of her dreams, and him being a prince, and then to walk into all of that madness and need the security of family and then have your father do some horrible things," said Perry, as quoted by the outlet. "When my life changed and success started to come, family members became different people, and I know how hurtful and horrible it can be."

Perry noted that he "immediately empathized" with Meghan.

"He stood by the couple with pivotal support and security when they were at their most vulnerable during their transition from royal life to the U.S.," said Fordwich. "While there are strategic reasons for their silence, it reflects poorly on their overall character… Their ingratitude [appears to be] on full display for other celebrities and the world to watch… Aren’t they supposed to be self-declared advocates for compassion and justice?"

In "Harry & Meghan," it was revealed that Meghan cried to Perry when she began to open up about how she was treated by the British media. Meghan and Harry cited the unbearable intrusions of the British press and a lack of support from the palace as their reasons for their exit.

"To tell Meghan that I felt her feelings were valid, [that] hurt," Perry said, as quoted by People. "She was afraid of them destroying her, or going crazy, or them making her think she was crazy."

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In the series, Meghan and Harry admitted they didn’t have anywhere to stay in California where they could feel safe during the pandemic. It was Perry who stepped in and opened his doors for them.

"It was bliss because no one knew we were there," said Harry.

"It’s a secret, so at least during COVID-19 we can take the dogs for a walk and have a little slice of normal life," said Meghan.

Schofield is adamant that the couple, Meghan in particular, could use their platform to express words of support for her friend. Meghan, who relaunched her Instagram account in January, has 3.9 million followers.

"Harry and Meghan’s refusal to get involved is clearly an act of self-preservation," said Schofield. "But with Meghan’s almost binge-like activity on social media and the constant promotion of her As Ever brand, their avoidance of the Perry scandal feels amplified."

"You can post a four-year-old video of yourself [doing the ‘Baby Mama Dance’] but you can’t acknowledge a friend in need? One who showed you so much kindness that measuring it would be impossible? A man who gave you a private plane, a luxury home and –—most importantly, an exit strategy?" Schofield argued.

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"Tyler Perry says he’s innocent — maybe he is," said Schofield. "But the fact that Harry and Meghan haven’t even [told] the press that they stand by him is just another example of the Sussexes’ all-about-me mindset."

In 2020, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex purchased a $14.65 million home in the wealthy, coastal city of Montecito.

According to the U.K.’s DailyMail, Perry posted a heartfelt birthday message on X to the duchess in 2022 that read, "I’ve had a front-row seat in your life for the past few years. I’ve watched you endure things that would have broken a lot of people. I’m so incredibly proud to see how happy you, your husband and your kids are now."