Crystal clear: Forecast for possible government shutdown is murky

I have a parliamentary crystal ball for how September may go on Capitol Hill.

That doesn’t mean I have many answers.

Like most crystal balls, they are limited in their accuracy. They won’t give you the full story. But they will absolutely nail some aspects.

No. The crystal ball cannot definitively predict whether the government will shut down Oct. 1, the start of the federal fiscal year. In fact, information from the crystal ball surrounding that very question is especially cloudy.

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Impeachment of President Biden? Or Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas? Or Attorney General Merrick Garland?

Just as hazy.

But the crystal ball does forecast the following:

The Senate will advance a few individual appropriations bills in the coming weeks. And House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., will try to advance a fig leaf, interim spending package that appeases the right. The House Freedom Caucus and other conservative members will demand various provisions that either trim spending, address the border or wrestle with potential impeachment. 

McCarthy’s bill won’t actually be what Congress settles on to fund the government. In fact, one can’t even technically call it a "Continuing Resolution" or "CR" if it cuts funding or addresses ancillary issues important to Republicans. By its nature, a CR sustains funding at present levels so the government doesn’t shutter. But McCarthy will have made his point.

However, what’s murky in the crystal ball is whether McCarthy and House Republicans can later digest a CR from the Senate that doesn’t address any of their priorities just to keep the government funded.

However, the crystal ball is crystal clear about one thing: If the House doesn’t eventually swallow a bipartisan CR from the Senate, there will be a government shutdown.

That’s as definitive as anything we’ve drawn from the crystal ball.

So, here are some of the machinations surrounding a potential government shutdown and possible funding measures over the next four weeks.

The Senate is back from its summer recess a full week ahead of the House. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., notes that the Senate cleared 12 appropriations bills in committee before the recess. So, he’ll deposit three of those on the floor soon.

"All 12 appropriations … have been reported out of the committee with bipartisan support. Some of them, many of them, were with unanimous, bipartisan support," said Schumer. "Now, that doesn’t mean everyone agreed on everything. It sometimes means something more important. It means that disagreements haven’t paralyzed the process."

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Schumer scored backup from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

"Congress needs to address our nation’s most pressing needs with timely appropriations. And we need to keep the lights on come Oct. 1," McConnell said.

Before the recess, the full House OK'd only one of its 12 spending measures. So, this is a chance for the Senate to get ahead of the House and inoculate it from criticism it hasn’t passed any appropriations bills.

But Schumer understands the stark reality. No matter what, the solution to averting a government shutdown is for the House and Senate to pass some sort of interim spending bill that keeps the federal lights on for a few weeks, if not a couple months. And the only tangible recipe to make that work? A Band-Aid bill can only pass with a coalition of Democrats and Republicans.

McCarthy doesn’t need a crystal ball to understand that a bipartisan, temporary bill is the route too. He’s indicated to House Republicans a stopgap bill is necessary right away, asserting that the GOP will fight for deep spending cuts with the "real" bills later.

But McCarthy hasn’t addressed something else that is clear in the crystal ball. It remains unsaid because it’s politically radioactive: A clean CR likely requires a substantial chunk of Democratic votes in the House. In fact, it may score far more Democratic votes than GOP votes.

"We all agreed a CR is the best way to go," Schumer said of a meeting he had with McCarthy about government funding. "He’s going to have a rough time implementing it."

That’s why a clean CR with substantial Democratic support is politically the most malignant bill to McCarthy.

House conservatives will bray if McCarthy defaults to that position – even if he goes through the proper motions to appeal to the right on impeachment, spending cuts or border policy. However, McCarthy likely needs to embrace some of these appeals by the right if he wants to stay in good graces with the House Freedom Caucus.

But the second McCarthy dials back from those positions …

If he dials back from those positions …

That’s why the crystal ball can’t predict if there might be a government shutdown.

This boils down to the math.

The current breakdown in the House features 222 Republicans to 212 Democrats with one vacancy. In other words, Republicans can only lose four votes from their side and still pass a bill without Democratic assistance. More Democrats voted for the debt ceiling pact with President Biden in the spring than Republicans. And conservatives haven’t let McCarthy forget it.

But it gets worse for the GOP.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., could miss some time for his cancer treatments. And Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah., resigns effective Sept. 15. So, that could mean Republicans are effectively operating with only 220 members. That drops the GOP margin to three votes.

The biggest roadblock for putting any piece of legislation on the House floor is what’s known as the "rule." The House Rules Committee is the gateway for most bills to get to the floor. The Rules Committee and the entire House must first adopt a "rule" before considering legislation. The rule determines the parameters for debate on a given bill. But if the Rules Committee or entire House fails to approve a rule, the bill can’t come up for debate.

This could be nettlesome for McCarthy with Ralph Norman, R-S.C., Chip Roy, R-Texas, and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., serving on the Rules Committee.

That said, there is a way to skate around the Rules Committee on a CR that simply renews all old funding on a temporary basis.

The House can bypass the Rules Committee by putting a "privileged" Continuing Resolution on the floor after Sept. 15. "Privileged" means the resolution is written in a manner that whisks it to the front of the legislative line. 

Granted, such a "privileged" CR is subject to multiple points of order on the floor. That could be messy enough. But such an option to skip a step does exist in the House quiver.

Will that scenario unfold?

The crystal ball has not even considered the "privileged" CR option because it is obscure.

So, what’s going to happen? I have no idea. And frankly, neither does the crystal ball.

This poses a salient question: If the crystal ball can’t foretell what’s going to happen in Congress, what good is it?

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I asked the crystal ball about its future in congressional soothsaying.

The response? Foggy at best.

Kevin Costner's ex Christine Baumgartner shut down in court as judge orders her to pay $14K in attorneys' fees

EXCLUSIVE: SANTA BARBARA, Calif. – A judge ordered Christine Baumgartner to pay Kevin Costner's attorneys fees during a hearing Wednesday.

Costner had previously requested the court have Baumgartner pay "reasonable attorneys' fees and costs incurred" in the amount of $14,237.50 after she "refused in bad faith" to answer questions sent to her by the "Yellowstone" actor's legal team, according to legal documents obtained by Fox News Digital.

Despite Judge Thomas Anderle ordering Baumgartner to pay Costner's attorneys fees, he did deny some other parts of Costner's request. 

Baumgartner's request for order was also denied. She had asked the court to order Costner to hand over financial documents and have him pay nearly $9,000 in attorneys fees.

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Costner and Baumgartner did not appear in court today.

Fox News Digital reached out to representatives for both Costner and Baumgartner.

Costner also took home a win in the ongoing divorce court battle with Baumgartner on Friday. A judge ruled Costner's monthly child support payments would not be increased following two days of tense testimony. Judge Anderle's ruling made the new monthly child support payments $63,209. Costner is also solely responsible for the children's health care, private school tuition, extracurricular activities and the couple's oldest son's car expenses.

Baumgartner had requested the payment be increased by $31,837 for a monthly total of $161,592. It had been temporarily set at $129,755.

"Support greater than $63,209 per month is disguised spousal support," Anderle wrote in his filed decision. "Christine will have her opportunity to convince the Court that she is entitled to spousal support."

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The "Field of Dreams" star exclusively told Fox News Digital he feels there was "no winner" after court ended.

"You know, when you have a life that long with somebody, there is no winner...and it's this big, crazy thing called life and how it unravels so quickly," he said. "One minute you feel like you're on top of the world, and then you realize how, you know, how vulnerable you are."

As for his co-parenting plan with Baumgartner moving forward, Costner is certain the former couple will figure it out. "She's an incredible mom," he told Fox News Digital. "We will figure it out and we'll share. We just got to kind of convalesce right now."

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The amount Baumgartner requested for child support was a "mistake," a legal expert told Fox News Digital.

"I would never have challenged $129,000 a month award and said it was insufficient," Brett Ward, partner and co-chair of the Matrimonial & Family Law Practice at Blank Rome, said. "That is more than… the vast majority of people make in a year. And she was getting it in a month. And to go to a court and say that was insufficient for a lifestyle I think was a mistake."

The celebrity attorney, who is not involved in this case, explained the ruling seemed to be a "warning sign" to Baumgartner as the couple gears up for a trial over the validity of the premarital agreement in November.

"Probably won't impact it too much, but to me, it was definitely a warning sign that greed isn't going to be what controls here, that we're going to apply some reason to this process," Ward explained. "And I do think that she walked out of that court weakened, and I would think twice about going too far with the arguments related to the prenuptial agreement."

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Baumgartner testified Thursday about her future plans for employment and an alleged "boyfriend," whom she claimed was a longtime friend of the family and nothing more.

Costner's lawyer, Jacqueline Misho, asked Baumgartner if she planned to become employed. She previously testified that she would need to finish school to become employable and would like to work with kids. Baumgartner told Misho, "I think I would need to go to college – get my degree."

"I have no idea what's coming in the next year," she said about her intentions to become employed.

Costner took the stand Friday and spoke about his finances, exposing the drama surrounding his "Yellowstone" salary amid the end of the Paramount Network show. Additionally, the actor noted that his world has "been shook up" by the divorce. "So, there’s a few things I have to do with this seismic change."

"There’s a few responsibilities I can’t run away from," he explained. "Mostly what I have to do is figure out how to spend more time with the children and help walk them through this…spend a little time with myself."

Baumgartner first filed for divorce from Costner in May, citing the date of separation as April 11. The couple shares three children together; Caden, Hayes and Grace.

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