On Thursday, President Trump took a victory lap over the House passing his “one big, beautiful bill.”
He wrote on Truth Social:
“THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” has PASSED the House of Representatives! This is arguably the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country! The Bill includes MASSIVE Tax CUTS, No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, Tax Deductions when you purchase an American Made Vehicle, along with strong Border Security measures, Pay Raises for our ICE and Border Patrol Agents, Funding for the Golden Dome, “TRUMP Savings Accounts” for newborn babies, and much more! Great job by Speaker Mike Johnson, and the House Leadership, and thank you to every Republican who voted YES on this Historic Bill! Now, it’s time for our friends in the United States Senate to get to work, and send this Bill to my desk AS SOON AS POSSIBLE! There is no time to waste. The Democrats have lost control of themselves, and are aimlessly wandering around, showing no confidence, grit, or determination. They have forgotten their landslide loss in the Presidential Election, and are warped in the past, hoping someday to revive Open Borders for the World’s criminals to be able to pour into our Country, men to be able to play in women’s sports, and transgender for everybody. They don’t realize that these things, and so many more like them, will NEVER AGAIN happen!
As for the content of the “one big beautiful bill,” here is the truth: The American people are not in touch with reality when it comes to fiscal issues.
Yes, it is good that taxes did not massively increase. Yes, we do need funding for border security.
But — if you are worried about the fiscal health and economic health of America, we need to explode many of the myths that currently surround the American economy.
Myths, such as the idea that there is no American middle class.
Not true.
Myths, such as the idea that manufacturing productivity has gone down in the United States.
It has not.
Myths, such as the idea promoted by both parties, that labor unions in the United States are the good guys, as opposed to businesses that hire people, who are the bad guys.
Axios reported that a brand new poll from the liberal Economic Policy Institute shows that labor unions are now significantly more popular than so-called big business. Labor unions have a popularity rating of about 60%, as opposed to big business, which is below 50% at this point.
The reason why that’s not good is because it leads to a populist economic policy in which you only get to argue whether you want a government that spends a lot of money and has lower taxes or a government that spends even more money and has higher taxes.
Those are the two options for the parties.
And that’s why you got a bill that looks like this. It’s a mess.
There’s some good stuff in it, tax cuts, the border security funding. If I were in Congress, I would have voted for it, because the crap sandwich is still better than a massive tax increase in the middle of what currently is a pretty rocky economy.
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That said, the reason we can’t have nice things in this country is because the American people are fundamentally opposed to the things it would take for us to have actual nice things, like good government policy.
For example, President Trump made sure that there were no significant restructurings of Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.
The Medicaid changes were on work requirements. Those would not take effect until December of 2026. No changes to Medicare. No changes to Social Security.
All of these are systemic drivers of America’s debt.
The reason why there were no significant restructurings of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security is that President Trump realizes the political reality, which is that there is no desire from the American people to restructure entitlements.
In order to avoid blowback from the Democrats, President Trump decided not to touch any of that stuff.
More and bigger social services mean a higher deficit. And the American people, Democrats and Republicans alike, do not want to come to grips with this. They simply do not.
There is a gigantic series of problems with the American debt, and this bill does not radically change the trajectory of that debt. It changes around the margins. It doesn’t actually get to the core of the matter.
Our government is a ticking debt bomb. When you talk about America’s debt bomb, let’s talk about the American debt-to-GDP ratio. Right now, we’re already at roughly 100%.
U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 118.5% by 2035 under current policies, based on the CBO projections. This would actually be higher than our post-World War II record of 106%, which is psychotic and crazy, as World War II was really, really expensive.
If the current legislation were to pass, then debt theoretically could climb even higher, maybe reaching almost 130% of GDP by 2034.
Social Security and Medicare, if there were no changes here, would still be bringing our debt-to-GDP ratio to about 120% over the course of the next ten years or so.
So let’s be real about this. The bill makes sure your taxes don’t radically increase, which is a good thing. You want economic growth. You want to be able to grow your way out of some of this. You are going to need lower taxes and lower regulation. And those two things, lower taxes, lower regulation, that is stuff the Senate is working on.
However, to pretend that we do not have a debt bomb coming is silly. Obviously, we do. And this bill doesn’t solve that.
The reality is that the American people are not willing to face up to what it would actually take to fix the economy for the long term. So what that means is you are likely to get a bunch of bad bills from here to eternity, or, at least, until the point at which the debt burden becomes so strong that it sinks the ship we are all sailing on together.
