The Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia should win easily.

And yet the races are tighter than the prognosticators had expected. Here’s why.

Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy officer and ex-prosecutor as well as a sitting congresswoman, should clobber Jack Ciattarelli, a onetime assemblyman who has already run twice and lost. 

Since I began my career at a New Jersey newspaper, I can tell you that the Garden State has never been as solidly blue as it is now.

SHERRILL PULLS OUT ALL STOPS WITH OBAMA ENDORSEMENT, STAR-STUDDED NEW JERSEY CAMPAIGN PUSH AS RACE TIGHTENS

One problem that Sherrill faces is that outgoing governor Phil Murphy is extremely unpopular, and voters tend not to reward the party in power when they’re ticked off.

And then there’s the Trump factor, which hangs over Tuesday’s races like a storm cloud.

While Ciattarelli called Trump a "charlatan" in 2015, they’ve since made up and the president has endorsed him. In 2012, he voted against a bill legalizing same-sex marriage but has since flipped his position.

Sherrill is doing everything she can to make the election about Trump. She pounds away at the president, knowing full well that Ciattarelli can’t separate himself from the Trump agenda on any issue without potentially triggering his anger.

What’s more, Trump canceled a $16 billion tunnel between New Jersey and New York. That is poison among North Jersey commuters. 

Throw in a month-long government shutdown, and the weekend’s suspension of SNAP food benefits, and you’ve got a perfect storm for Sherrill. 

But with Ciattarelli campaigning in minority communities, it’s just not going to be a cakewalk.

TRUMP STUMPS FOR ENTIRE VIRGINIA GOP TICKET, WHILE YET TO FORMALLY ENDORSE EARLE-SEARS

In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, would ordinarily be rolling to victory against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the first Black woman to win a statewide race. Trump has not endorsed her. 

But Spanberger has displayed a distinct lack of courage, and that’s hurt her.

The Democrat running for attorney general, Jay Jones, is widely viewed as a disgrace. He texted a colleague that he had "two bullets" for the then-speaker of the House of Delegates, Todd Gilbert. Oh, and he’d like to see his children die.

Spanberger could have insisted that he bow out of the race, that this was absolutely appalling behavior. But she didn’t. She still backs Jay Jones. That made her look like just another self-serving political hack.

The press has largely given Spanberger a pass, making it into a one- or two-day story before moving on. But Earle-Sears, a combat veteran, has thrown most of her advertising budget at this one issue, while also playing up the trans women in men’s sports controversy.

Spanberger is running against the Trump economy as a way of playing up the affordability issue in the commonwealth. She casts the Trump tariffs as a "massive tax hike on Virginians." 

Virginia is not as blue as New Jersey, but the northern suburbs certainly are, a place where untold numbers of federal workers have been fired or aren’t getting paid during the shutdown. 

Spanberger is trying to convert some Trump voters in rural areas. But as former senator Joe Manchin told Politico, "If you have a ‘D’ by your name in rural America – grassroots, rural, religious America – they’re going to lose, no matter how they try to switch."

Spanberger is still on track to win by double digits, in a state won by Kamala Harris – so she seems to have ridden out the storm.

NEW POLL IN KEY SHOWDOWN FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR INDICATES SINGLE-DIGIT RACE

Trump, who has been consumed by foreign travel and mediating wars, has paid little attention to this week’s elections, publicly at least. He has not campaigned for anyone in person during the final stretch. It’s as though he knows he has a losing hand – probable losses in left-leaning states – and doesn’t want to be associated with the outcome.

Barack Obama, the de facto champion of the leaderless Democrats, campaigned for Spanberger and Sherrill on Saturday.

That brings us to New York City and its toxic, melting pot, heavily ethnic, punch-in-the-nose brand of politics.

Here Trump is playing a role by constantly denouncing Zohran Mamdani, the front-runner who would be the city’s first Muslim mayor, as a "communist."

The Republicans are already running against Mamdani, the self-proclaimed socialist. He is a gift from the political gods. They are making him the face of the Democratic Party.

Andrew Cuomo, who learned politics from his father Mario, when I first met him, was outhustled by Mamdani. The polls are suddenly tightening, but the charismatic Mamdani is still likely to win, largely because Republican Curtis Sliwa, the former Guardian Angel who has no chance, refuses to drop out.

The hard-edged Cuomo is hardly an ideal candidate. He was forced to resign as governor four years ago after a torrent of sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.

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Hakeem Jeffries finally gave Mamdani a lukewarm endorsement, despite the fact that he doesn’t recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, because he’s the expected winner. If that happens, Mamdani won’t be able to deliver on most of his promises for free goods and services, because he’ll need help from Albany and other power centers.

And that will be hung around the neck of every Democrat running in places far less liberal than the five boroughs. The Republicans will make sure that Mamdani is the most famous Democrat in the country, the symbol, fairly or not, of a far-left party. 

Off-year elections are usually a snooze, testing turnout when the incumbent president isn’t on the ballot. But this one has more twists and turns than the L.A. Dodgers hanging on by their fingernails to beat the Toronto Blue Jays.

U.S. District Court Judge Karin Immergut on Sunday temporarily extended an order blocking the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, saying the government failed to justify the move.

In an order issued Sunday evening, Immergut "preliminarily enjoins Defendant Secretary of Defense Hegseth from implementing" memorandums that authorized the federalization and deployment of National Guard members from Oregon, Texas and California into Portland. 

The injunction will remain in effect "until this Court issues its final opinion on the merits by Friday, Nov. 7, 2025, no later than 5 p.m."

Immergut said that the court witnessed "three days of testimony and argument in a trial that ended 48 hours ago," reviewing more than 750 exhibits, many of them voluminous. She wrote that "the interest of justice requires that this Court complete a thorough review of the exhibits and trial transcripts before issuing a final decision on the merits."

TRUMP TEAM URGES OREGON JUDGE TO END RESTRAINING ORDER BLOCKING NATIONAL GUARD

Ultimately, she assessed the Trump administration’s actions and found the government’s justification lacking.

"Based on the trial testimony, this Court finds no credible evidence that during the approximately two months before the President’s federalization order, protests grew out of control or involved more than isolated and sporadic instances of violent conduct that resulted in no serious injuries to federal personnel," she wrote. 

The judge further concluded that the president "likely did not have a colorable basis" to invoke either Section 12406(3) or Section 12406(2) to federalize and deploy the National Guard to Portland's ICE facility. 

Immergut pointed to testimony from local law enforcement – officials who had firsthand knowledge of demonstrations – as key to her conclusion that the protests did not amount to a rebellion. 

FEDERAL COURT TO REVIEW CASE RELATING TO TRUMP’S AUTHORITY TO SEND NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS TO PORTLAND, OREGON

"Based on trial testimony that this Court found credible, particularly the testimony of Portland Police Bureau command staff, who work in Portland and have first-hand knowledge of the crowds at the ICE building from June to the present, the protests in Portland at the time of the National Guard call outs are likely not a ‘rebellion,’ and likely do not pose a danger of rebellion," she wrote. 

Immergut also concluded that the administration's actions likely violate statutory limits and constitutional protections.

The judge wrote that "Defendants’ federalization and deployment of the National Guard in response to protests outside a single federal building in Portland, Oregon, extended beyond delegated statutory authority under 10 U.S.C. § 12406 and violated the Tenth Amendment." 

She added that sending in troops from one state into another infringes on state sovereignty, describing it as "an injury to Oregon’s sovereignty under the Constitution, and Oregon’s equal sovereignty among the States."

The judge said she expects to issue her final opinion on the merits by Friday, Nov. 7, 2025, by 5 p.m. PT. Until then, "the Oregon National Guard may remain federalized, but not deployed."