The UN Climate Change Conference, COP30, starts Nov. 6 with a world leader summit and runs to Nov. 21. It will emphasize "the urgency of the climate crisis and the need for accelerated and collective climate actions." However, Microsoft founder Bill Gates just issued a memo aimed at COP30 attendees proposing a fundamental shift in priorities: focus on poverty reduction rather than climate modification.

Gates, who previously gave primary importance to measures to reduce near-term emissions, has drawn criticism for arguing that "a metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change [is] improving lives. Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world's poorest countries."

His argument rests on three key premises: climate change poses serious challenges but does not represent an existential threat to civilization; temperature metrics alone inadequately measure climate-related progress; and improved health and economic prosperity provide the most effective defense against climate change.

Gates provides data to show that achieving net-zero emissions would result in a 1.9-degree Celsius temperature increase from 1990 levels, while inaction would produce a 2.9-degree increase. This one-degree differential, he argues, suggests that resources allocated toward net-zero goals might yield greater humanitarian benefits if redirected toward energy access and disease prevention.

KEN PAXTON'S ATTACK ON INVESTORS IS CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL, NOT CONSERVATISM

The correlation between energy consumption and economic prosperity is striking. Nations with annual per capita incomes below $1,145 consume approximately 1,100 kilowatts per person annually, while those exceeding $14,005 in per capita income utilize 55,000 kilowatts per person annually, according to data cited by Gates.

The genuine inequity, Gates contends, lies in human development disparities. A child born in South Sudan faces mortality risks 39 times higher before age five compared to a Swedish child. These vulnerable populations require enhanced access to energy, nutrition and healthcare infrastructure.

The relationship between economic development and energy consumption is unequivocal: no nation has achieved high per capita income with low per capita energy usage, and conversely, no country maintains high energy consumption alongside persistent poverty.

THE DISTURBING CONNECTION BETWEEN UN'S GREEN ENERGY PUSH AND ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Increased energy access facilitates improved living standards through enhanced productivity, agricultural advancement and household consumption, thereby reducing dependence on subsistence farming. Energy availability either provides farmers with modern agricultural technologies or enables economic mobility to pursue alternative livelihoods.

High-energy nations benefit from superior healthcare infrastructure and water sanitation systems, resulting in reduced maternal and child mortality rates and greater capacity for environmental protection measures.

Hurricane Melissa’s destruction in Jamaica illustrates how natural disasters inflict disproportionate damage on developing nations compared to wealthy countries, due to disparities in energy infrastructure, resilient construction and recovery capabilities. Affordable energy access is essential to addressing these inequalities.

TRUMP PICKS HIS MIAMI DORAL RESORT TO HOST 2026 G20 SUMMIT IN FLORIDA DURING NATION'S ANNIVERSARY YEAR

Energy poverty in many African and Latin American nations drives migration pressures, as residents seek higher living standards in fossil fuel-rich regions, particularly Europe and North America.

To support emerging economies and alleviate migration pressures, President Donald Trump has reversed restrictions on loans to developing countries for fossil fuel energy projects. Financial institutions are no longer compelled to finance exclusively renewable energy initiatives.

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The 140 private banks from 44 countries that participated in the United Nations Net Zero Banking Alliance — including Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Sumitomo — have suspended their commitments to restrict fossil fuel financing. The World Bank, which has historically discouraged fossil fuel and nuclear power lending while prioritizing renewables, may reassess its position.

This policy shift enables developing nations to secure financing for conventional power plants, transmission infrastructure, distribution networks and household connections. Importantly, this change diminishes China's strategic advantage in lending to African and Latin American nations — often securing ports and other assets as collateral.

Gates's reversal in the climate debate challenges the international community to confront an uncomfortable reality. While climate conferences convene in developed nations with reliable electricity and healthcare systems, billions lack access to the energy that makes such gatherings possible.

His argument suggests that the most effective climate strategy may be ensuring that vulnerable populations have the resources to adapt and thrive, rather than pursuing emissions targets that may perpetuate the very poverty that exacerbates climate vulnerability. Whether policymakers at COP30 will heed this message remains uncertain, but Gates has succeeded in reframing the conversation around what climate action should ultimately serve: economic progress, not merely atmospheric targets.

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Everything changed on Tuesday.

And nothing changed. 

Bear with me.

THE RESULTS ARE IN: 2025’S BIGGEST WINNER AND LOSERS FROM THE OFF-YEAR ELECTIONS

Perhaps the most important thing that happened with the Democrats winning big in the off-year elections is the psychological boost. The Democrats haven’t had anything to celebrate for a year. Now, they’re high-fiving themselves. This is clearly a protest against President Donald Trump and Trumpism, which makes the victory a little sweeter.

Two women had especially big nights. In New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill is the new governor-elect. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger is the commonwealth’s first female governor-elect. Hell, even Jay "two bullets" Jones, who sent those awful texts about wanting to kill the then-House speaker, won his race for Virginia Attorney General.  

If you live in those states, your life may change a bit.

But, it’s also a reminder that politics is not just about policy. Sure, the Democrats were shrewd to run on affordability, given that the president had promised to bring prices down. But ultimately, voters want someone they feel comfortable with, someone who can deal with unforeseen crises.

Yet on the national front, Trump still controls the White House. He still controls the House. He still controls the Senate. He’s largely backed by the Supreme Court, despite skepticism at yesterday’s oral argument about whether tariffs fall under his emergency powers.

So what has really changed?

The continuing government shutdown fueled a sense of frustration and impatience with the president, as he acknowledged in that terse response to the GOP losses — which extended to California, where Gavin Newsom pushed through a redistricting plan in response to Republican gerrymandering.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE 2025 ELECTIONS

Trump was quick to note that he wasn’t on the ballot. But, in a very real sense, he was on every ballot.

The media invariably overinterpret these off-year elections in two left-leaning states. Trump sensed disaster so he just opted out, not wanting to be tainted by the coming losses.

But he’s still got all his power.

Let’s imagine it’s six months from now and the shutdown, now the longest in American history, is a distant memory. Let’s say the economy has improved somewhat — a big if, to be sure. Who knows whether that means the Democrats will romp in the midterms?

Joe Biden suffered no midterm losses when predictions of a blue wave never materialized. Barack Obama lost the House in his first midterm, and then lost the Senate in his second midterm. George W. Bush lost the House in his second midterm, making Nancy Pelosi speaker. Trump lost the House in his first midterm, in 2018.

Bush called it a "thumpin'," Obama a "shellacking."

It’s just too early to say whether Trump will suffer a similar fate in next year’s midterm elections, when Democrats would only need to pick up a handful of seats to take control.

The other unfolding drama is in the media capital, where Zohran Mamdani was elected New York City's first Muslim mayor, beating Andrew Cuomo for the second time. Cuomo refused to make the traditional concession call, a petty move that was beneath him.

Talk about the power of personality. The obscure assemblyman, who’s never run anything, is a self-described socialist who started at 1 percent in the polls. He is beloved by younger people and put together a coalition that somehow combined wide-eyed liberals with working-class immigrants in Brooklyn and Queens.

Mamdani did blunder by making a fiery speech, almost yelling at times, rather than a more inclusive one.

WHAT THE RESULTS OF THE 2025 ELECTIONS MAY MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS

He fared poorly among Jewish liberals, who are upset by his refusal to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, and threatend to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu if he comes to the U.N.

The mayor-elect will inevitably fail to fulfill many of his promises–free buses, free child care, free everything — because he won’t have the power and needs help from Albany. And some of his past comments from his defund-the-police, abolish-ICE days would have sunk a less charismatic candidate.

Mamdani now has 81 percent name recognition, in keeping with the high profile of New York City mayors, from John Lindsay and Ed Koch to Rudy Giuliani, Mike Bloomberg and Bill de Blasio.

AOC is thrilled, but it’s the Republicans who couldn’t be happier.

The National Republican Congressional Committee just launched a digital ad against Mamdani, which is running in nearly 50 swing districts.

"A radical left earthquake just hit America. The epicenter: New York," the spot says.

They had already been campaigning against Mamdani in trying to make him the face of an increasingly left-wing party. Some starry-eyed supporters see socialism as the answer, but it hardly plays as well in Butte or Baton Rouge as in the Bronx. 

Circling back to Trump, who slams Mamdani as a communist: Does he moderate a bit? Not his style. 

He is always about firing up his base and the party he has remade in his image, even if Hill Republicans are resisting his demand to abolish the filibuster.

The media are heavily anti-Trump, and in a visceral way, especially since their corporate owners keep settling his lawsuits. That’s why you’re seeing so many on-air smiles as they replayed the victory speeches all day long.

But these early proclamations of Trump’s inevitable demise may well turn out to be exaggerated.