President Donald Trump departed for the annual NATO summit at The Hague on Tuesday, hoping to claim another major foreign policy victory as most NATO allies have already agreed to his demand to boost defense spending after the president called out the European nations for “freeloading” and taking advantage of American military protection.

NATO countries, except Spain, agreed in preliminary talks to increase defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product, a significant increase from the previous 2% target that many allies struggled to meet.

The spending commitment is divided into two parts: 3.5% for traditional military spending, such as air defense and recruitment, while the remaining 1.5% can include infrastructure like roads and bridges that troops could use.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has resisted the spending increase, arguing that it would strain the country’s extensive welfare state.

“We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do it,” Sanchez said. In 2024, Spain’s defense expenditure as a share of GDP stood at a measly 1.28%, the lowest of any NATO country.

However, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte struck an optimistic tone early Tuesday morning when President Trump shared a private message from him that read: “You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening. It was not easy, but we’ve got them all signed onto 5 percent!”

“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done,” Rutte said. “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win.”

Trump told reporters he doesn’t believe the United States needs to reach the 5% target itself, given that the United States is far separated from many threats NATO faces and does not have a need to invest in wartime infrastructure to the same degree.

Rutte, a Dutch politician who has served as secretary general of NATO since October 2024, has expressed strong support from NATO for recent U.S. military actions against Iran, rejecting suggestions that American strikes violated international law.

“This is a consistent position of NATO: Iran should not have its hands on a nuclear weapon,” Rutte told reporters ahead of the summit. “I would not agree that this is against international law — what the U.S. did.”

Trump is expected to meet with various world leaders at the summit. He said he would “probably” see Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose country continues pushing for admission into the alliance.

Trump’s meetings “will focus on issues of shared concern and reaffirm the United States’ strong ties with our allies and partners,” an administration official told Fox News.

The summit was initially set to focus on the alliance’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war, but the Trump-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire is expected to be the main topic of discussion.

Former New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 67,  and self-declared Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, 33, are facing off on Tuesday in the New York Democratic mayoral primary, with a final poll suggesting the Syrian-born lawmaker could topple the veteran politician through ranked-choice voting.

Steve Kornacki, a national political correspondent and election analyst for NBC News, paints a nuanced picture of Tuesday’s primary vote, emphasizing that only two major public polls have been conducted in the lead-up to the primary, each showing vastly different results.

The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll shows Cuomo leading Mamdani by a slim 35% to 32% margin in first-choice votes, but after multiple rounds of ranked-choice tabulation, Mamdani overtakes the former governor to win 52% to 48%. There are 11 Democrats on the primary ballot.

A Marist University poll conducted a week prior has Cuomo leading 38% to 27% in the initial round and 55% to 45% after several rounds of ranked choice.

In ranked-choice voting, voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ next choices until someone wins a majority.

The polls diverge in two major areas, Kornacki explains: performance among black voters and the distribution of City Comptroller Brad Lander’s votes after he is eliminated in the ranked choice tabulation.

The Marist poll showed Cuomo with a 52-point advantage among black voters in the final round, while the more recent Emerson survey indicates Mamdani has closed that gap significantly, winning 38% of black voters in the final tabulation.

Lander’s projected elimination had little impact on the final round of the Marist poll, as Cuomo’s lead diminished only slightly from 13 to 10 points. In contrast, Emerson’s final round shows Lander’s votes propelling Mamdani to a 4-point lead over Cuomo after trailing in the prior round.

Brad Lander, recently arrested at an immigration court protest, could emerge as the race’s kingmaker.

Lander and Mamdani formed a strategic alliance last week, with each candidate asking supporters to include the other in their ranked ballots while excluding Cuomo — a move that explains why Mamdani gains substantially if Lander is eliminated in the tabulation process.

Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver points out, “[O]ne of the nuances of RCV (ranked-choice voting) is that negative campaigning can backfire just because it puts your name more in voters’ minds and therefore they’ll list you *somewhere* on their ballot.”

“I’m hearing things I don’t like about this Zohran guy, I’d better make sure to list him below [preferred choices] on my ballot’ is a lot *better* for Zohran than if voters don’t list him at all. Cuomo may benefit from this effect too,” Silver adds.

Kornacki predicts the tallying will likely continue past Tuesday, and the primary result might not even indicate the next mayor of deep blue New York City.

But no matter who wins the Democratic primary, both Cuomo and Mamdani are expected to appear on the general election ballot. Cuomo has already created the “Fight and Deliver Party,” which will allow him to appear on the November ballot regardless of today’s outcome, while Mamdani is poised to be the candidate of the Working Families Party in the event of defeat.

Meanwhile, current Democratic Mayor Eric Adams is running as an independent in the general election, while Republicans are poised to nominate Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. The potential addition of both Cuomo and Mamdani further crowds the field for the general election in November.

Mamdani, who currently represents parts of Queens in the state assembly, has advocated for defunding the police, rent control expansion, government-sponsored grocery stores, higher taxes, and $65 million in taxpayer-funded “gender-affirming” trans procedures for adults and children.

Betting markets have the race in a dead heat as of Tuesday morning, leaning slightly in favor of Mamdani after the new Emerson poll, which accurately predicted the outcome of the 2021 primary, showed Mamdani taking the lead.