Latest Montana Poll Spells Disaster For Democrat Senate Chances

The latest poll from the Montana Senate race shows Democrats are in danger of losing the Senate, even if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency.

The latest poll, from AARP, shows Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with 49% of the vote and incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) with just 41% when all third-party candidates are included. In a head-to-head matchup, Sheehy leads 51-45%.

The poll of likely voters was conducted between August 25 and 29 and has a margin of error of +/-4% with the total sample and a margin of error of +/-3.5% with voters over 50. The survey was answered by twice as many Republicans than Democrats, as well as Independents, but it is in line with other polls being conducted in this race.

Democrats need to win Montana in order to keep control of the Senate if Harris is elected president. According to Axios, they are likely to lose the Senate race in West Virginia and therefore need to win all eight other competitive seats. If they do so, the Senate will be split 50-50 and Gov. Tim Walz, as vice president, would be able to cast the tie-breaking vote, as Harris did under President Joe Biden.

But if Democrats lose Montana, Republicans will hold 51 seats to Democrats’ 49, meaning they would have control of the Senate even if Harris wins.

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As The Daily Wire has previously reported, Tester’s poll numbers haven’t been favorable for a while, and likely played a role in him skipping the Democratic National Convention and refusing to endorse Harris for president.

The RealClearPolitics polling average has Sheehy up 5.2 points.

Former President Donald Trump also leads in Montana, a state he won by 16 points in 2020. Tester is also the only Democrat in Montana’s congressional delegation.

He won his previous elections by less than four points (3.1 percentage points in 2018 and 3.7 percentage points in 2012), so if Sheehy is helped even a little by the state’s favor of Trump, Tester could lose his seat.

Polling is also tight in several other Senate races Democrats need to win, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Montana appears to be the most likely one for Democrats to lose at this point.

In late August, Tester told reporters he wouldn’t endorse Harris for president.

“Two reasons — because I’m focused on my race, and number two, people want to nationalize this race, and this isn’t about national politics,” Tester told NBC Montana. “This is about Montana.”

OOPS: Biden Admits His $369 Billion Inflation Reduction Act Wasn’t About Inflation

Speaking in Wisconsin on Thursday, President Joe Biden bragged about his spending for his climate change agenda while inadvertently admitting that his gigantically-priced “Inflation Reduction Act” was not really about reducing inflation.

“I’m proud to announce that my investments, that through my investments, the most significant climate change law ever,” Biden boasted, then revealed that the Inflation Reduction Act title was simply a fig leaf for the real intent of the bill, continuing, ‘” And by the way, it is a $369 billion bill. It’s called the [Inflation Reduction Act]. We should have named it what it was.”

The bill was passed by Congress and signed into law by Biden in August 2022. In July 2023, Biden bragged on Facebook, “The Inflation Reduction Act included $369 billion, the biggest investment in the world in climate change, and we got it done without a single Republican vote.”

In case you're wondering why gas & groceries are still so expensive, Joe Biden just admitted the 'Inflation Reduction Act' was never about inflation—just a Green New Steal slush fund.

Guess they woke him up too early from his nap. https://t.co/2N81qRmMwY

— Rep. Nancy Mace (@RepNancyMace) September 5, 2024

“We were sold under false pretense that spending more money we don’t have on federal programs we don’t need would somehow tame inflation,” Rep Jodey Arrington (R-TX) wrote in mid-August. “How does that work? It doesn’t. According to the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, the IRA had a statistically insignificant impact on inflation and may have even exacerbated it.”

House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) noted in August 2023, one year after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, that since the start of the Biden-Harris administration, the cost of groceries had soared roughly 20%, gas prices were up almost 62%, natural gas prices had risen over 40%, and the Congressional Budget Office expected the launch prices of drugs to increase.

This week, Rodgers, and Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan (R-SC) announced they would hold a hearing titled “From Gas to Groceries: Americans Pay the Price of the Biden-Harris Energy Agenda.” 

“Clean, affordable, and reliable energy is foundational to the continued prosperity of the American people. Yet, the Biden-Harris administration’s radical, rush-to-green agenda has undermined our energy security, leading to years of out-of-control inflation and higher prices on everything from food to housing to vehicles and more,” Rodgers and Duncan said. “Energy and Commerce Republicans are leading to expose the consequences of those harmful policies and to advance policies that unleash American energy.”