Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn will advance to the May 26 runoff election in the Texas Senate Republican primary, results indicated as of Tuesday night.

DecisionDesk projected the runoff at around 10:25 p.m. ET, with Cornyn at about 43.2% to Paxton’s 40.3%.

Rep. Wesley Hunt, who was also campaigning for the seat, was in a distant third place as of Tuesday night. In the Lone Star State, a candidate needs to crack 50% of the vote in order to avoid a runoff election.

None of the candidates was able to snag an endorsement from President Donald Trump that was unique to them, but the president did note that he backed “all three.”

“I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go, and I haven’t. [Cornyn’s] a good man. John is a good — I like all three of them, actually,” the president said in mid-February. “They’ve all supported me. They’re all good and you’re supposed to pick one. So, we’ll see what happens. But I support all three.”

It’s unclear if the president will endorse a candidate for the runoff election.

All three candidates were in attendance at an energy-focused event led by the president in Corpus Christi, Texas, last Friday. However, the election was overshadowed this weekend by a shooting at an Austin bar where two people were killed and over a dozen were injured – as the alleged shooter wore a “Property of Allah” hoodie and apparel with the Iranian flag on it.

The candidates engaged in a brutal and, at many times, personal fight for the nomination. Accusations flew about Cornyn’s political record, Paxton’s personal history, and Hunt’s attendance in Congress – all while trying to make the case that they would be the best individuals to carry out Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his second term.

Whoever advances to the general election will face off against either Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Sen. James Talarico in November, depending on the final outcome of the Democratic primary.

Sen. Ted Cruz has remained neutral in the primary race, but his own electoral history could provide a window in the 2026 contest. Cruz defeated former Rep. Colin Allred in 2024 with 53% of the vote, and the Republican also beat former Rep. Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

The Cook Political Report ranks the general election race as “Likely Republican” as of Tuesday night, as the Kalshi prediction market has the odds of Republicans winning the general election at 60%.

While critics of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy push the narrative that his Iran strikes are dividing MAGA, a closer look at the data suggests that any cracks are at the surface rather than deep in the president’s Republican base.

The RealClearPolitics Average showed that overall support for Operation Epic Fury, the joint military campaign undertaken by the United States and Israel over the weekend, had the president underwater a bit with 39% approving of the action and 52% disapproving.

A breakdown of some of the individual polls showed that Republicans were united on the issue, with no one poll showing more than 18% opposing military action in Iran. The vast majority of the disapproval came from Democrats — who were also fairly united — and, to a lesser extent, independents.

A CBS/YouGov poll taken between March 2 and March 3, for example, showed that just 10% of Democrats approved of military action in Iran and 90% disapproved. Among independents, 63% opposed the action and 37% were in favor. A majority of Republicans (85%) supported military action and just 15% did not.

A similar result came from a Washington Post poll taken on March 1, which showed Democrat opposition at 87% and support at 9%. On the Republican side, 81% approved and 12% did not — and independents once again fell in the middle, with 59% against military action and 28% in favor of it.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey followed the same pattern, with 5% of Democrats supporting military action in Iran and 95% against it. Republicans came out largely in favor of military action, showing 82% approving and 18% disapproving. Among independents, 67% disapproved and 29% supported the action.

The apparent outlier included in the average was a poll from InsiderAdvantage taken on February 28, but it still showed similar numbers from Republicans: 79.3% in favor and 12% opposed. The numbers for Democrats shifted slightly, with 62.5% disapproving and 32.1% approving. Independents also showed much higher numbers in favor of military action, with 45.3% supporting and 40.3% opposing.

Sentiments had been moving in Trump’s favor, if only slightly, just prior to the first strikes, however. A CBS/YouGov poll taken on February 24 showed 47% in favor of Trump taking military action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and 53% opposed. Just three days later, 51% were in favor and 49% opposed.

A Fox News poll conducted between February 28 and March 2 showed overall approval and disapproval deadlocked at 50% on either side — but also showed that a majority (61%) view Iran as a national security threat.

Among Republicans, as in the other polls, the sentiment lies primarily (84%) on the side of taking military action against Iran. Among independents, support for military action was just under half, at 40% — and only 20% of Democrats were in favor.

The Fox News poll went a bit deeper as well, noting that among those who had served in the military, a majority (59%) favored the campaign against the Iranian regime and 39% opposed it.