American Consumer Debt Hits Record Level, Rises Nearly $3 Trillion Since Lockdowns

American households currently have nearly $17.1 trillion in consumer debt, with balances standing $2.9 trillion higher than before the lockdown-induced recession, according to data released on Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Household debt in the first quarter of 2023 increased $1.2 trillion from the first quarter of 2022. Mortgage debt, typically the largest category of consumer loans maintained by households, now surpasses $12.0 trillion, a phenomenon that comes as the elevated interest rate environment forces prospective homebuyers to assume considerably higher mortgage rates. Student and automotive debt are each $1.6 trillion, while credit card debt neared $1.0 trillion.

Shares of mortgage debt in serious delinquency doubled from 0.3% to 0.6% over the past year, while automobile debt in serious delinquency rose from 1.6% to 2.3%, and credit card debt in serious delinquency rose from 3.0% to 4.6%.

Mortgage debt, which rose $864 billion over the past year, composed 71.7% of the overall household debt increase. Automobile debt rose $93 billion, and credit card debt rose $145 billion, marking 7.7% and 12.0% shares of the broader debt increase, while student loan debt was comparatively flat.

High mortgage rates, caused by actions from the Federal Reserve meant to combat inflation, have significantly decreased affordability for potential homebuyers in recent months. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was below 3% in the two years after the lockdowns, according to data from government-backed mortgage company Freddie Mac, but the rate has risen to 6.4% as of last week, with the increases coming after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates.

“The pandemic boom in purchase originations was driven by many factors: low mortgage rates, strong household balance sheets, and an increased demand for housing,” analysts from the Federal Reserve said in an analysis. “Homeowners who refinanced in 2020 and 2021 benefitted from historically low interest rates and will be enjoying low financing costs for decades ­to come.”

Median home sale prices increased from $322,600 in the second quarter of 2020 to $467,700 in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, followed by a moderate decline to $436,800 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Lower home prices in recent months come as a result of the high mortgage rates, which apply downward pressure on demand as families delay new home purchases.

Wage increases have failed to keep pace with inflation over the past two years, pressing consumers to finance more of their household expenditures with debt. The average age of cars and light-duty trucks on American roads has reached record levels as buyers likewise delay new purchases over elevated price levels and interest rates, according to a report from S&P Global.

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Americans are more pessimistic about their finances than at any time since the Great Recession: half of the respondents in a February survey from Gallup said they are “financially worse off” compared to one year ago, while low-income Americans were the most likely to say they have less robust finances since last year.

Economic growth declined to a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, marking a significant decrease as economic headwinds slow recovery from the recession and the interest rate hikes decrease consumer demand, according to an estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Americans Delay Buying New Cars As Long As Possible To Avoid High Prices

The average age of cars and light-duty trucks on American roads has reached 12.5 years, according to a report from S&P Global, a phenomenon that comes as bottlenecked supply chains and elevated inflation continue their toll on households.

The financial analytics firm noted that 2023 marked the sixth consecutive year of increased average vehicle ages. The three-month rise between 2022 and 2023 constituted the largest year-over-year increase since the recession which struck the United States between 2008 and 2009, during which consumers likewise tightened their budgets in response to economic turmoil.

“We expected the confluence of factors impacting the fleet coming out of 2021 would provide further upward pressure on average vehicle age. But the pressure was amplified in the back half of 2022 as interest rates and inflation began to take their toll,” said Todd Campau, associate director of aftermarket solutions for S&P Global Mobility. “While pressure will remain on average age in 2023, we expect the curve to begin to flatten this year as we look toward returning to historical norms for new vehicle sales in 2024.”

There are presently more than 284 million vehicles in operation on American roads; continual increases in popularity for light-duty trucks will cause the number of passenger vehicles to decline below 100 million for the first time in nearly five decades. Firms in the aftermarket repair sector are slated to experience windfalls as the number of cars between six and 14 years old is forecasted to increase by 10 million in the next five years.

S&P Global linked the higher average vehicle ages in 2022 to “supply constraints that caused low levels of new vehicle inventory” in the first half of the year, followed by “slowing demand as interest rates and inflation reduced consumer demand” in the second half.

Lockdowns and public health mandates imposed over the past three years by governments across the world fostered unpredictable supply chain shocks, contributing to inflation in many countries. Sectors impacted most severely by foreign bottleneck exposure, such as automotive manufacturing, textiles, and basic metals, also witnessed the most extreme inflationary pressures, according to an analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Persistent labor shortages that followed the lockdown-induced recession continue to produce difficulties for American companies seeking to hire more workers. There exist roughly 9.6 million job openings and 6.0 million unemployed individuals across the American economy, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflecting a labor market that has further worsened inflationary pressures as firms increase compensation to attract and retain workers.

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Officials at the Federal Reserve have meanwhile increased the target federal funds rate to combat the inflationary pressures: target rates now sit between 5.0% and 5.25%, increasing borrowing costs for consumers, including those who finance their car purchases with debt.

American economic growth slowed to a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, marking a significant decline from previous quarters as the economic headwinds slow recovery from the recession and the interest rate hikes decrease demand, according to an advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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