The chances of a narrow majority could be a problem for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., especially in his quest to be Speaker.

Republicans may be heading for a majority somewhere in the 220s for next year. The entire House elects the Speaker. The successful candidate must have an outright majority of the entire House. In other words, 218 votes if the House is constituted at 435. The Speaker is not just who won the most votes.

The House must vote repeatedly until it elects a Speaker. A vote for Speaker hasn’t gone to a second ballot since 1923. 

Heading into Tuesday, McCarthy probably had a range of 7-10 Republicans who wouldn’t support him for Speaker no matter what. That number could grow. 

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McCarthy may be able to command the votes so long as he can keep former rival Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, on his side (remember, Jordan ran against McCarthy for Leader in 2018) and if the California Republican stays within the good graces of former President Trump.

It wouldn’t take much for Mr. Trump to throw McCarthy under the bus. Especially considering the GOP’s tepid success when expectations were so lofty. 

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But there is a reason McCarthy didn’t become Speaker in 2015 when former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, resigned. McCarthy announced on Fox that Republicans developed the 1/6 committee just to undercut the presidential bid of Hillary Clinton. It was as though McCarthy said the quiet part out loud.

Support for McCarthy to succeed Boehner was already shaky. But some Republicans were already looking for a reason to oppose McCarthy. They found it in the Benghazi remark – and McCarthy was toast.

History could repeat itself.

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After being promised a "red wave," some Republicans will look for a reason to dump McCarthy. Tuesday’s weak tea at the ballot box could justify some GOP opposition to McCarthy for Speaker. Moreover, if McCarthy does become Speaker, he is going to have to veer FAR to the right to meet the demands of the House Freedom Caucus on a host of issues – ranging from impeachments to funding the government to raising the debt ceiling. Freedom Caucus members – like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., – will demand a pound of flesh from McCarthy in exchange for them supporting him for Speaker. 

In addition, the calling card of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is passing major bills with the most narrow of margins. She’s done it for two decades. McCarthy has never demonstrated strong vote counting prowess. McCarthy could face instant management problems.

In fact, McCarthy’s first challenge could come in mid-December. That’s when a bill to avert a government shutdown comes due. If McCarthy doesn’t take a stand against that bill and do what the Freedom Caucus wants, those same members could hold that against him if and when he stands for Speaker on the House floor on January 3. 

As we say, it will be "about the math" when it comes to McCarthy.

As the midterm results rolled in Tuesday night and the "red wave" long hoped for by Republicans hadn't materialized, many pundits and journalists across the spectrum pointed their fingers at former President Trump.

As several Trump-backed candidates in major races lost or lagged behind other Republicans in their states, a consensus appeared to emerge that Trump had a bad night, although it was still up in the air whether Republicans would re-capture the House and Senate.

Former Obama campaign strategist David Plouffe said on MSNBC, "I think you have to say Donald Trump has now presided over two disastrous midterm elections." In his only one as president in 2018, Trump's party lost control of the House, although it gained U.S. Senate seats thanks in part to a favorable map. In 2022, Republicans appeared poised to make huge gains and seize control of both chambers of Congress, but in the early hours of Wednesday morning, it still remained unclear if they would even take control of the House, a seemingly unthinkable proposition last week. 

"Given the history of presidents in power, Democrats controlling all of Washington, inflation, this should’ve been a much stronger night for Republicans," Plouffe said. "A bunch of for reasons for that. But at the top of them is Donald Trump. He’s deeply unpopular, he supported a bunch of horrible Senate candidates who may end up coughing up the football here."

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MSNBC's Chris Hayes said Republicans ascribed to Trump a "totemic power he does not have" and he had "screwed" Republicans."

"He is unpopular. He is unpopular," Hayes said. "He screwed you today. Screwed you. It's not the full story… but it is part of the story, and the sooner you dump him, the better it is for the Republican Party and American democracy, full stop."

ABC's Jonathan Karl said it was still unclear who would control the chambers of Congress for the next two years but declared Trump the goat.

"What I can tell you is the biggest loser tonight is Donald Trump," Karl said.

On CNN, conservative commentator Scott Jennings offered a rather blunt analysis of the night, juxtaposing the performance of Trump-backed candidates across the country with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, R., a potential 2024 contender who romped to a landslide re-election on Tuesday. 

"There's a potential narrative out of this night that if you're a discerning Republican voter trying to figure out the future, direction of this party, we once again learn that Trump is not a national winner for the Republicans," the GOP pundit told the panel. "But DeSantis may be the next evolution of someone who can marry what you like about Trump but also recover some people that went away from the party during Trump."

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In Georgia, Herschel Walker looked like he would not outright defeat Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., on Tuesday, despite Gov. Brian Kemp, R., already easily beating Democrat Stacey Abrams in his re-election bid. Trump enthusiastically backed Walker while he famously feuded with Kemp over his 2020 election defeat in Georgia.

Trump-supported Doug Mastriano was dispatched handily by Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro in the state's governor's race, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, another Trump candidate, lost to Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania's closely watched Senate race.

Republicans also lost the New Hampshire Senate race with Don Bolduc unable to oust Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., and prominent Trump supporters in the House like Rep. Mayra Flores, R-Texas, was defeated on Tuesday.

In one bright spot for Trump, Republican J.D. Vance defeated Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, in Ohio's Senate race, although as of Wednesday morning, Vance was running about 10 percentage points behind Republican Gov. Mike DeWine in his re-election bid. Trump supporters touted the party's wins in Florida and Ohio, formerly swing states Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, as proof he helped make them into red states.

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But Jennings said DeSantis should tout his 20-point victory as a "way to a national majority."

"Boy, if I were Ron DeSantis, or someone who wanted to help her understand this, that is the message I would be on tomorrow, which is ‘My way is the way to a national majority. His way is the way to a national minority,'" Jennings said.

MSNBC's Jen Psaki, formerly of the Biden White House, said Republicans "have a [T]rump problem," while The Atlantic's Tim Alberta said DeSantis shouldn't let Trump "bluff him out of running for president" and should be considered a favorite to win the nomination in 2024. 

Various conservative voices also cast blame on Trump as the results came in and fumed over the poor results for Republicans.

Trump himself commented about tonight's results declaring it a "great evening" and claimed the news media was trying to downplay it. 

"174 wins and 9 losses, A GREAT EVENING, and the Fake News Media, together with their partner in crime, the Democrats, are doing everything possible to play it down. Amazing job by some really fantastic candidates!" Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social.