CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten voiced his own surprise on Tuesday as polls indicate that Republicans are not seeing a drop in popularity due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Enten joined CNN host John Berman to discuss the shutdown and how it might eventually come to an end — and Berman predicted that “political pain,” for one party or the other, would be what ultimately brought people to the table. Enten pushed back, noting that Democrats might be the ones feeling the pain.
WATCH:
#BREAKING: Republicans’ polling has improved during Democrat government shutdown
CNN: “The Republican brand in Congress has actually improved” incl. with Independents 📈
Plus alarm bells for Democrats: “The worst position Democrats have been…in the last 20 years” 🚩 pic.twitter.com/g0hWYhsChM
— Ben Petersen (@bennpetersen) October 28, 2025
“One thing that might end a shutdown is political pain, if parties start to feel that it’s hurting them. So let’s talk about that, starting with Republicans. How has the shutdown seemed to have affected their political standing?” Berman prompted.
“Yeah, you might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But in fact, it hasn’t!” Enten replied. “If anything, it’s been helped a little bit! Take a look here, the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand, actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped. Come over to this side of the screen, look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown! So what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to where we were pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control. And that’s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at is, ‘Hey, why should we give in, electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit?'”
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Berman pressed for details, asking whether Republicans were only getting more popular with die-hards or were they making gains across other demographics: “Now we say their position is getting better, with whom?”
“It’s rallying the base for sure. Look at this, the net approval rating up 12 points versus pre-shutdown,” Enten began — but he did not stop there. “But it’s not just with the base, it’s also with the middle of the electorate. Look at this among independents, it’s up eight points as well! So we’ve got a situation here where Republicans with the shutdown are actually rallying their base, but it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the folks in the middle. If anything, it’s helping them with folks in the middle, and this is the type of math that if you’re Republicans, you like to see, right? Because something could rally the base, but alienate those in the middle, or something could rally those in the middle, but alienate the base.”
“But the truth is, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well, that Republican brand when it comes to those in Congress,” Enten added. “So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?”
“And Democrats, of course, they have their eyes on the midterm elections. Yeah, we have elections one week from today, but what Democrats in Congress are mostly focused on are one year and one week from today, from the midterms. So how do Democrats, how are they positioned right now?” Berman asked.
Enten broke out the worst news, noting that Democrats were actually losing ground as the midterms crept closer. “You look at this point back when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now. Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points. This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on in a generic ballot at this time in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years. And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So Republicans aren’t losing on this metric either. They’ve become more popular, and they’re in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.”
“This is a concerning number for Democrats, are you saying?” Berman tried one more time.
“This is a concerning number for Democrats, because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president,” Enten confirmed the worst.
