A year apart, President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden both touted September job growth — but the source of that growth couldn’t be more different. Under Trump, the federal workforce shrank, while under Biden, it expanded.

Thursday’s jobs report showed an overall increase of 119,000 jobs, with the bulk coming from the private sector.

“The job growth was driven almost entirely by private-sector job gains,” stated the White House in a press release. Health care and construction industries led the way — adding 43,000 and 19,000 jobs, respectively. And while the private sector grew, the public sector shrank.

“Federal government employment continued to decline in September and is down 97,000 since reaching a peak in January,” the report showed. That figure may even understate the true contraction, as workers on severance are still counted as employed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On the other hand, Biden’s September 2024 report told a different story. “Employment in government continued its upward trend in September,” the report stated. Under Biden, government jobs averaged a monthly gain of 45,000.

When Trump took office, federal jobs were at a peak. He implemented a federal hiring freeze initially scheduled to end October 15, which was later extended indefinitely. Once the freeze expires, federal agencies can hire no more than one employee for every four employees who depart from federal service. The freeze makes exceptions for jobs related to immigration, law enforcement, and public safety. Trump framed the reduction as a correction of the previous administration’s growth. The hiring freeze fact sheet explains, “In the last two years of the Biden administration, the government was directly responsible for the creation of more than 1 in every 4 jobs.”

Campaigning on eliminating waste, the Trump administration says the freeze is necessary to address the “billions of dollars wasted each year on duplicative programs and frivolous expenditures that fail to align with American values or address the needs of the American people.”

Not stopping at limiting new hires, the Office of Personnel Management estimates that by the end of the year, more than 300,000 federal employees will have left or lost their jobs. The Trump administration says it hopes many of those workers transition to private-sector positions.

The strength of private-sector job growth complicates the Federal Reserve’s path. CNBC’s Steve Liesman said the report “bolsters the case of the hawks on the FOMC who have said they do not see serious deterioration in the labor market … a robust report.”

According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, without a weakening labor market, the case for a December rate cut becomes much harder.

At November’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Powell described a difficult balance: a tight labor market alongside higher-than-desired inflation. Ultimately, the Fed decided on a rate cut to avoid further disruption to employment.

“We’re in a difficult situation,” Powell said at the National Association for Business Economics. “If we move too quickly, then we may leave the inflation job unfinished. If we move too slowly, there may be painful losses in the employment market.”

Trump Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett says he expects the government shutdown to knock 1.5% off of fourth quarter GDP, making now “a very bad time” to pause rate cuts despite a strengthening labor market.

The United States has reportedly crafted a 28-point plan to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Both Russia and Ukraine have signaled that they believe the plan can serve as a starting point for further negotiations. U.S. officials have referred to the plan as a “living document” that will be ironed out in mediation with both sides, according to Axios.

As it stands in the version published by Axios, Russia would receive recognized control over the regions of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine must limit its standing military and establish in its constitution that it will never join NATO. In exchange, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the United States without regard to Europe.

Ukraine would receive hundreds of billions of dollars-worth of investment to aid in its rebuilding efforts, including $100 billion-worth of frozen Russian assets. Russia would receive reentry into the G8 and sanctions would be lifted. Frozen assets will be returned except for those spent on Ukraine’s rebuilding.

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All parties will receive amnesty for their actions during the war. Prisoners will be exchanged on an “all for all” basis, and all civilian detainees will be returned, including children. Russia is accused of kidnapping Ukrainian children – one estimate runs into the hundreds of thousands – and reeducating them before enlisting them in its own military.

Both countries will commit to instituting educational programs aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance. Nazi ideology and activities must be outlawed.

The plan includes a number of other aspects as well, such as Ukraine’s eventual admittance into the European Union. If either country fires upon the other unprovoked or otherwise breaks the terms of the peace, the concessions given to the aggressor will be voided.

A ceasefire will take place immediately after terms have been finalized and agreed to and forces have withdrawn to their respective lines. The ceasefire and eventual peace will be monitored by the Peace Council headed by President Donald Trump, like the eventual ceasefire and peace plan agreed to between Hamas and Israel.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky was presented the plan on Thursday. After reviewing it, he agreed to enter into talks with Trump’s team. Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who reportedly had a hand in crafting the proposal alongside U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, referred to negotiations earlier this week in positive terms.

“We feel the Russian position is really being heard,” said Dmitriev.

The peace plan was published by Axios after senior U.S. military officials traveled to Ukraine to meet with Zelensky. While the plan has not been rejected, it does include some aspects that Ukraine has previously rebuffed as red lines, such as additional territorial concessions to Russia that include land that Russia currently does not control.

The plan also does not take into account additional actions that may be taken by the Europeans, such as additional security guarantees for Ukraine made by other countries in Europe.