President Trump is not on the ballot in 2026, and thus his coattails will really not apply to House Republicans or Senate Republicans.

That means an uphill battle for Republicans. The incumbent party in off-year elections tends not to do particularly well. Right now, Republicans are running the barest majority humanly possible in the House of Representatives because of the untimely death of California Republican Representative Doug LaMalfa. His death shrinks the House GOP majority to 218 to 213.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who wants to run for president herself and seems to be running an anti-Trump campaign, formally resigned from the House in the middle of her term this week. So there are now four empty seats, two in red-leaning districts, two in blue districts. Also, Representative Jim Baird of Indiana was in a car accident, so he is sidelined temporarily.

That means that the GOP is now down to 217 votes. Then you also have people like Thomas Massie, who routinely votes against the president of the United States, and now you’re down to 216. 

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson always had a very, very tough job. Now that job is becoming nearly impossible.

So the question becomes: How do President Trump and Republicans somehow get something done this year that allows them to claim victory heading into 2026?

Foreign policy wins actually do matter. There is this idea that what happens on the foreign policy front doesn’t help presidents at all, or their parties, but that is eminently untrue. Foreign policy wins can help at the margins. That is particularly true if you are targeting political constituencies that are drifting away from you.

One of the factors about the Trump constituency that is really quite fascinating is that he radically overperformed with Hispanic Americans in 2024. There’s a case to be made that what he’s doing in places like Venezuela, and possibly Cuba, is going to have an outsized impact on voter turnout in 2026, particularly in some of the swing states.

Trump also has a booming stock market.

The stakes are very high because if Democrats were to win the House of Representatives, the Trump agenda stops — dead.

President Trump says that if the Republicans do not win the midterms, he will undoubtedly be impeached. He is likely right about this, although I’m not so sure that President Trump gets impeached the minute that the Democrats take over the House. I think that they will start investigating everybody in Trump’s orbit. I think they will start ruining lives inside Trump’s orbit. They did that during Trump’s first term.

One of the things the GOP will not be able to count on is Democrats being totally stupid. They are getting less stupid. They have lost a series of elections. It’s not been good for them. And now they seem to be jettisoning some of their worst baggage, including the trans issue. You don’t hear them talking about DEI anymore.

Instead, they are refocusing over and over again on “affordability.” They believe that is their only winning path. They are using the Venezuela issue to say that Trump is ignoring the “affordability” problem at home.

But there is a line of attack here that Republicans are going to have to use — and use often: the amount of fraud, waste, and abuse of the system that is inherent in a bigger government, from Democratic administrations everywhere from Minnesota to New York City.

That is what is going to crush the “affordability” issue.

Another thing that’s been fascinating to watch is the collapse of Tim Walz in Minnesota, a very blue state. And Tim Walz just had to declare that he would not run for reelection again. He was forced to make that declaration because of the extraordinary amounts of fraud that allegedly exist in his blue state.

When you connect that to the Democrats’ immigration policy, it is a toxic combination. One of the reasons the fraud in Minnesota has captured the minds of so many Americans is because it appears to revolve around members of a community who have been imported into the United States, who have not assimilated into American practices, and bilked the rest of the taxpayers in Minnesota.

When you combine the fraud and immigration issues, it’s a toxic brew for Democrats. It exists across the spectrum. And it’s not just in Minnesota; it’s in New York; it’s in California.

Republicans need to focus extraordinary fire on this particular issue, because it’s not just enough to unleash DOGE and say waste, fraud, and abuse have to be caught; you have to actually connect it with Democratic policy, and you have to connect it to something that Republicans have been loath to connect it to: the size of government.

When I was growing up, being a conservative meant you were against the expansion of the size and scope of government. Nowadays, it seems in vogue for Republicans to be in favor of that expansion, but at the same time, to want to “cut that waste, fraud and abuse.”

That’s not a great argument, because inherent in a bigger government is waste, fraud, and abuse. And when you combine that with loose immigration policy, the way Democrats have, you end up with Minnesota.

So here’s my advice for 2026 for Republicans: Focus on “affordability,” but point out what Democrats would do if they gained power: radically expand government, which radically expands fraud, radically expands waste, and radically increases costs.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, announced Tuesday that Medicaid payments to 14 programs in Minnesota will be deferred, and that a sweeping audit of those federally funded programs is underway, as the Minnesota fraud scandal and the response from the Trump administration continue to escalate.

“The more we uncover, the more it becomes clear: It’s much worse than we were led to believe by state government officials,” he said in a video posted to X. Oz said that the “corrective action plan” provided to the federal government by the state of Minnesota on New Year’s Eve was “deeply insufficient.”

“We will begin auditing Medicaid receipts and defer paying on claims based on fraud, waste, and abuse,” he said, noting that the programs listed as vulnerable came from the Minnesota state government.

🚨Minnesota Medicaid Fraud Update: pic.twitter.com/Dk0W07P1U8

— DrOzCMS (@DrOzCMS) January 7, 2026

The Daily Wire reached out to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s office for comment on the remarks from Oz.

The announcement comes after Health and Human Services said last week that federal child care payments would be paused as well. Governor Walz opted not to seek re-election amid the intense scrutiny from fraud allegations within the Medicaid system and other federally funded, state-administered social services programs.

On Tuesday, an audit from the Office of the Legislative Auditor underscored concerns in the state with a critical look at Behavioral Health Administration Grants through the state’s Department of Human Services.

The report said that the Behavioral Health Administration “did not comply with most requirements [the audit] tested.” The report recommended that BHA “Establish sufficient internal controls to ensure compliance with grant requirements” and “conduct grant monitoring activities as required by state policies.”

Specifically, the report said that the BHA “paid almost $296,000 to 11 out of 18 grantees for: Unsupported costs [and] Reimbursement requests with errors.” It also said that BHA “overpaid” over $41,000 to two entities with grants, and gave “$915,540 to 6 grantees for work performed before BHA executed grant agreements.” In addition, over a dozen “existing grantees” received $2.5 million despite “bypassing [the] competitive grant award process.”

In response to the audit’s findings, Shireen Gandhi, the temporary commissioner for Minnesota’s Department of Human Services, said the findings are a “road map” for improvement at a legislative hearing on Tuesday.

“With respect to the audit report, while it’s upsetting that DHS has findings in areas we have placed concerted effort, the OLA’s report highlights the importance of the grant compliance work already underway at the department. And the findings provide us with a road map for our focus going forward to continue strengthening oversight and integrity of behavioral health grants,” Gandhi said. “I take the report seriously, I accept responsibility for the findings, and I will ensure DHS closes the findings.”

In Washington, the House Oversight Committee held a hearing regarding the fraud concerns.

“The breadth and depth of this fraud is breathtaking, and I fear that this is just the tip of the iceberg,” Chairman James Comer (R-KY) said during the hearing.

Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, took aim at the Trump administration while explaining his decision not to pursue a third term as governor.

“I won’t mince words here. Donald Trump and his allies – in Washington, in St. Paul, and online – want to make our state a colder, meaner place,” the Democrat stated.

“They want to poison our people against each other by attacking our neighbors. And, ultimately, they want to take away much of what makes Minnesota the best place in America to raise a family. They’ve already begun by taking our tax dollars that were meant to help families afford child care. And they have no intention of stopping there,” the governor added.