The current median price for a single-family home in America has surged to five times the median household income, causing panic among young people that the dream of homeownership may no longer be attainable.

There’s no single explanation for the spike, but there is one that’s been singled out by both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance: the massive influx of illegal immigrants into the United States during the Biden administration, when the southern border was effectively left open. Estimates suggest that more than 10 million illegal immigrants were encountered under Biden.

“We … cannot ignore the impact that the flood of 21 million illegal aliens has had on driving up housing costs,” Trump said during a speech at the Economic Club of New York in September 2024. Vance brought the subject up again just this Thursday, saying that there could be as many as 30 million illegal immigrants in the United States “taking houses” from Americans.

“A lot of young people are saying, ‘Housing is way too expensive.’ Why is that? Because we flooded the country with 30 million illegal immigrants who are taking houses that ought to, by right, go to American citizens,” Vance said. “And at the same time, we weren’t building enough new houses to begin with, even for the population that we had.”

There are certainly multiple reasons that the Trump administration is forging ahead with its effort to carry out mass deportations, and the White House argues that one of the best ways to fix the housing market would be to address the illegal immigration crisis.

Many of the illegal immigrants in the United States move to city centers across the country when they enter, receiving government handouts and housing. The majority of illegal immigrants are pushed to find government shelters or cheap places to rent, given the difficulty of attaining a home without legal status in the country. Some of them, however, have been able to purchase American homes thanks to multiple mortgage companies agreeing to lend money to illegal immigrants without a social security number or green card, The Daily Wire uncovered earlier this year.

There is disagreement from economists and immigration experts on whether deporting the massive illegal population would have any measurable impact on the housing market at all. Norbert Michel, the vice president and director for the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, said he believes “the idea that illegal immigration has something to do with it is absolutely insane.”

The libertarian organization’s expert said that it’s possible illegal immigrants could have minimal effects on housing markets in certain pockets of the country, but on the national level, he said it’s a non-factor.

“Do I think that’s a national-level problem? Absolutely not,” Michel said.

E.J. Antoni, the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, agrees with Trump and Vance’s argument, saying it’s undeniable that such a large population would impact the market. He argues the mass deportation of illegal immigrants would have “the single biggest impact” on helping fix America’s housing problems.

“You can’t import over 10 million illegal aliens in a very short period of time and expect it not to have an impact on the real economy. Those people are all on the demand side of the housing equation. In other words, it’s 10 million additional people who now are looking for a place to live,” Antoni told The Daily Wire.

“This is econ 101: if you increase demand, you will increase price,” Antoni said.

Even though the vast majority of illegal immigrants are not technically in the market for owning a home, they still add pressure to the housing market. Increased demand for rental properties would increase lease prices and force more Americans to look at buying homes, Antoni argued.

“No matter which way you slice it, all of these people here increasing the demand for dwelling units is ultimately still going to have the effect of increasing the price of home ownership,” he said.

Studies have shown that illegal immigration can negatively affect the housing market.

Jason Richwine, a resident scholar at the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Daily Wire that researchers consistently find that high immigration, both legal and illegal, drives up housing costs “almost every time it’s studied.” One of the studies Richwine highlighted, from the Journal of Housing Economics, found that influxes in immigration “are associated with rising rents and prices,” especially in suburban areas.

“What they looked at was not only the impact on the given housing market where immigrants were coming to, but also the spillover effect. In other words, what happens to the price of housing in the areas just outside of the places where immigrants are coming to,” Richwine said. “What they found was that immigration raises the cost directly within the market immigrants arrive in, but even more so raises the cost around the area, with the idea being that people would prefer to live away from where the immigrants are coming to.”

Antoni acknowledges that there are other factors contributing to the housing market that are in the government’s control. He highlighted regulatory burdens placed on the housing industry by the government, which “makes it more difficult and more expensive to bring houses to market.”

A National Bureau of Economic Research study showed that construction of new homes is falling far behind the pace of previous generations. According to the study, “If the U.S. housing stock had expanded at the same rate from 2000-2020 as it did from 1980-2000, there would be 15 million more housing units.” From 2000 to 2020, while new home building was falling behind the pace of previous decades, illegal border crossings skyrocketed.

The libertarian Cato Institute, which generally opposes mass deportations, has argued that losing the illegal immigrant population may, in fact, increase housing costs because of how many of them work in construction.

The article, published by Cato last year in response to Vance’s comments about housing, agreed that illegal immigrants increase housing costs, but said the uptick in prices shouldn’t spark alarm or result in federal government action.

“Estimates show that about 30 percent of all construction workers are immigrants, with higher rates in California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Nevada. Deporting those workers or halting more immigrants will reduce the growth in the housing supply,” the author stated.

Antoni, the Heritage Foundation’s chief economist, disagreed with that argument.

“At the same time you have this massive influx of illegal aliens, you did not see a corresponding increase in home construction,” he said. “It was not as if all of these illegal aliens coming across the border suddenly caused a surge in the construction of new dwellings. That simply did not happen.”

Michel doesn’t just believe that illegal immigration has little to no effect on the housing market; he also rejects the premise that there’s a “housing crisis” to be fixed.

“I reject the crisis narrative from the beginning,” Michel said. “If you look at median annual housing costs as a percentage of income, it’s been pretty flat for quite a while. It’s almost exactly what it was in 2011. If you want to say there was a big bump during COVID, that’s true, but it’s come back down to the pre-pandemic level if you look at prices as a percentage of income.”

Michel pointed to some data to back up his argument. As of 2023, renters and first-time homebuyers were paying roughly the same percentage of their annual income on housing that they were in 2011. “It’s pretty hard to call that a crisis,” Michel said.

The cost of housing will almost certainly remain a topic of political debate for months as Republicans and Democrats prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. Nearly every young American — 97% of Gen-Z and 93% of Millennials — says they want to buy a home one day, and a staggering 84% of the younger generation say they’re delaying major life milestones like getting married or having kids until they can do so, according to a Coldwell Banker report.

Convincing Americans that Trump’s immigration crackdown will benefit them could be a key factor in how Americans view the president’s economic record when voters go to the polls again.

The United States and Switzerland announced a framework trade agreement on Friday that includes Washington slashing its tariffs on imported Swiss products to 15% from 39% and a pledge by Swiss companies to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028.

The United States and Switzerland, joined by Liechtenstein, aim to conclude negotiations to finalize their trade deal by the first quarter of 2026, the White House said in a statement.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the agreement tears down longstanding trade barriers and opens new markets for American goods. He welcomed “massive Swiss investment to help reduce our deficit in pharmaceuticals and other key sectors” that will generate thousands of jobs across the U.S.

At least $67 billion of the $200 billion in pledged Swiss investments in the United States will come in 2026, the White House said in a statement.

The total includes prior U.S. investment commitments including $50 billion from drugmaker Roche and $23 billion from Novartis along with pledges from engineering group ABB railway equipment maker Stadler.

In addition to pharmaceuticals – Switzerland’s largest export to the U.S. – the investments in U.S. production will target medical devices, aerospace and gold manufacturing, the White House said.

“This agreement puts Switzerland on an equal footing with the European Union and brings the tariff level down from 39% to 15%,” Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin said in announcing the deal, which affects about 40% of Switzerland’s exports.

“Of course, we would prefer (the $200 billion) to be invested in Switzerland,” Parmelin added. “And that’s why the Federal Council in parallel is doing everything to see how we can reduce costs for our businesses.”

The lower tariff rate is likely to be activated within “days, weeks,” as soon as the U.S. customs processing systems can be adjusted, said Helene Budliger Artieda, director of Switzerland’s  State Secretariat for Economic Affairs.

The deal guarantees a 15% tariff ceiling for Swiss pharmaceutical producers, limiting the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming Section 232 national security duties for the sector, which could reach 100% on certain patented drugs.

Parmelin said the 15% cap would also apply to other future Section 232 duties, including semiconductors, putting key sectors on the same footing as the EU.

“The risk of much higher sector-specific tariffs is therefore ruled out,” Parmelin added.

A Swiss government statement said the tariff agreement will reduce Swiss import duties on U.S. industrial products, fish and seafood and agricultural products “that Switzerland considers non-sensitive.”

Switzerland will grant the U.S. duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on 500 tons of beef, 1,000 tons of bison meat and 1,500 tons of poultry meat, the government said.

The White House statement said Switzerland agreed to remove a range of tariffs across agricultural and industrial  sectors including certain fresh and dried nuts, fruits, seafood and chemicals.

The White House also said Switzerland will recognize U.S. motor vehicle safety standards, a step toward addressing Trump’s frequent complaint that European countries do not buy American-made cars and trucks.

Swiss industrial groups welcomed the deal, saying it would put them on a level playing field with competitors from the European Union, which agreed to a 15% tariff on EU exports to the U.S.

“For the industrial sector, which was subject to a 39% tariff since August 1, this is good news. For the first time, we have the same conditions in the U.S. market as our European competitors,” said Nicola Tettamanti, president of Swissmechanic, which represents small and medium-sized manufacturers.

Switzerland’s machinery, precision instruments, watchmaking, and food sectors, which export to the U.S., would see the most relief, said Hans Gersbach, a director of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich.

KOF forecasts Swiss economic growth of 0.9% in 2026, but this would exceed 1% with the lower tariff rate, he added.

Switzerland had a $38.3 billion goods trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. This rose to $55.7 billion in 2025 through July, reflecting primarily the front-loading of U.S. imports from Switzerland during the first quarter, before Trump imposed his “reciprocal” tariffs in early April.

Nadia Gharbi, an economist at Swiss bank Pictet, said the tariff reduction removed the main downside risks for the country’s economy and represents a clearly positive development for Swiss industries and for the overall growth outlook.

“Under the previous tariff regime, Switzerland suffered a significant loss of competitiveness — not only because of the strength of the Swiss franc, but also because neighboring European economies were subject to tariffs of only around 15%,” she said.

Swiss industry on Friday reported a 14% fall in exports to the U.S. during the three months through September, technology industry association Swissmem said, while machine tool makers saw shipments slump 43%.

(Reporting by John Revill in Zurich; Additional reporting by Dave Graham in Zurich, Emma Farge and Olivia Le Poidevin in Geneva, Miranda Murray in Berlin, and Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Andrea Shalal in Washington; Writing by David Lawder and John Revill, Editing by Rod Nickel and Matthew Lewis)